It’s Been Sitting. They’re Probably Desperate.

“There’s so much on the market right now. We can offer whatever we want.”

A buyer said a version of this recently, and I understand why. The headlines have been telling them for months that the market is turning in their favor, and there’s real truth in that. But I want to walk through what the data actually says, and where the headlines stop being useful, because more inventory changes the conversation without giving every buyer the same amount of leverage on every property.

Start with the numbers. NAR’s June 2026 existing home sales report puts total inventory at 1.56 million units, up 1.3% from June 2025, with months of supply at 4.6, unchanged from a year ago. So yes, there are more homes for sale than last year, but the growth is modest, and supply relative to sales hasn’t actually moved.

Now the part the headlines get wrong. You’d expect more price reductions in a buyer-friendly market, and plenty of buyers assume that’s what’s happening. It isn’t. Realtor.com’s June report shows 18.8% of active listings with a price reduction, which is down almost two points from a year ago. At the same time, the median list price fell 2.5% year over year, the steepest annual decline in that data since 2017. Read those two facts together and you see what sellers are doing: they’re pricing to the market before they list instead of testing high and cutting later. That matters more than any other number in this article, because the buyer’s favorite assumption, “it’s been sitting, they must be desperate,” gets weaker every month that sellers price realistically from day one.

I don’t see one market. I see four.

They usually exist inside the same zip code, sometimes on the same street.

The sharp listing. Well priced, strong location, good condition. This home attracts immediate attention no matter what the inventory numbers say, and it can still draw multiple offers in the first week. A buyer walking in expecting to negotiate hard on this house is going to lose it to someone who understood what they were looking at.

The tired listing. Deferred maintenance, sixty or ninety days on market, maybe a reduction already behind it. This is where real negotiating room lives, if the buyer is honest about the work the house needs and the seller has run out of patience.

The range competing with new construction. In some price bands, resale sellers are up against builders offering rate buydowns and closing incentives, and months of supply pile up there. Those sellers have to compete on price and terms whether they like it or not.

The tight band. Often the entry-level range in a market. Demand still outruns supply, first-time buyers are competing with each other, and the national headlines about a buyer’s market simply don’t apply.

When an agent can tell a buyer which of these four situations they’re standing in, they become much more valuable than their competition, because the headlines describe the whole country and leverage gets decided property by property, on the facts of this house, this seller, and this competition.

What leverage actually depends on

• How long the property has been listed, and at this price specifically
• Whether the price has been reduced, and how recently
• How the home compares with the current competition
• Whether other offers are active
• The seller’s timeline and motivation
• The property’s condition
• How much competition exists in that price range
• Whether the buyer needs concessions or brings stronger terms
• What happened with similar homes nearby

Two listings on the same street can be completely different negotiations. One seller has already purchased another home and needs to close. Another is testing the market and has no reason to accept less. One property is the only updated home available at its price. Another is competing against several better options. The buyer’s leverage changes with the facts, not with the address.

The false confidence problem

More inventory usually does help buyers. It provides alternatives, reduces the pressure to accept the first available option, creates more time to compare, and in some cases more room to negotiate. But it can also create false confidence. A buyer may see dozens of listings and not realize that many are outside the preferred neighborhood, priced above budget, in rough condition, or carrying ownership costs like HOA dues that change the real monthly number. The dozens shrink to three or four fast, and that’s a conversation worth having before writing an offer, not after losing one.

And one more piece of nuance that gets missed in the celebration. Going under contract is not the end of the negotiation. The second negotiation, the inspection, still happens, and the leverage question gets asked all over again there. A buyer who spent all their goodwill grinding on price may find the seller has nothing left to give when the inspection report comes back.

Where leverage really comes from

Here’s what I teach people that’s a little different: a buyer gains leverage when they understand the problem the seller has and offer to solve it. The seller might need a specific close date, time to remain in the property after closing, fewer inspection uncertainties, stronger financing, confidence the deal will actually close on time, or a clean path out of a property that has already fallen out of contract once. A lower price with difficult terms is often less attractive than a slightly stronger price with a cleaner structure. And a full-price offer can still create real value for the buyer if it secures meaningful concessions, repairs, credits, personal property, or timing.

Compare two things an agent might say.

“The listing history and the nearby competition suggest there may be room to negotiate, but the home is now priced closer to the market. We can write an offer that tests the seller’s flexibility while keeping the terms credible enough to start a conversation.”

Versus:

“It’s been sitting, they’re probably desperate.”

The first helps the buyer make a decision. The second creates an expectation the agent may not be able to deliver.

So the conversation with the buyer sounds like this: more inventory gives you more choices, and that can create leverage, but we still need to measure the leverage on this particular home. Let’s look at how long it has been at this price, what else is competing with it, whether the seller has made adjustments, and what terms may matter most to them. Then we can decide how hard to push.

What would your buyer say if you asked them which of the four markets this house is sitting in?

Data: NAR Existing-Home Sales report, June 2026 (released July 9, 2026); Realtor.com Monthly Housing Trends Report, June 2026.